I've heard talk since I started graduate school that e-readers and e-books, along with Google, would make libraries obsolete. The ongoing disputes between publishers and open-source advocates, regarding whether or not information should be a commodity to be bought and sold or should be given away freely, has been interesting. The Internet was created and used by scientists and researchers whose purpose was to share information at no cost, whereas publishers have always charged for information. The differences in opinion, regarding open source software, licensure agreements, e-books and where libraries fit into all this, isn't going away any time soon. The price war between Macmillan and Amazon over Macmillan's e-books is but one of many such disputes new to the 21st century information age.
Libraries will fit into all this, as publishers will, by adapting how they do business. A simple catalog search this afternoon showed that the Charlotte-Mecklenburg Library houses 623 e-books. I personally believe print books will be around for a long time. Print is easier to preserve because there is not the need to adapt the technology. I don't know whether an e-book readable on a Kindle today will be readable on the version of e-reader that my grandchildren will use; if so, it will be an unusual display of technological durability. In my lifetime, the primary mode of listening to music has gone through four variations: vinyl records, cassette tapes, CDs, and now MP3 tracks. Will e-readers change just as quickly, or even half as quickly? Print, on the other hand, will be readable in a century if well preserved.
However, the market for e-books is likely to increase, as there is something very appealing about being able to carry around several hundred books in one reader that fits easily inside a purse or briefcase. A high school in Florida is switching to Kindles for textbooks, an idea that I find very appealing and I hope this is the norm by the time my sons reach high school age. (However, school systems, through no fault of their own, are generally slow to adopt new technology, so I'm not expecting it.) As e-books are less expensive than print books, this idea could mean a savings for school systems, depending on how the initial cost and upkeep of the Kindles factors in. Students could then check out e-books from the media center on their Kindles as well.
The librarian's job will change in that he or she will do more online interaction and less face-to-face interaction. Many public libraries already offer real-time reference desks using IM, and many patrons, myself included, make library hold requests and renew items online. The librarian's job has expanded to include reader's advisory information on the library website as well as reader's advisory in person.
But even if the brick-and-mortar library of the future does not store as many print books, the library will never become obsolete. Among other reasons, users will still borrow e-books and need help finding e-books that interest them.
As far as Google substituting for the reference librarian...that's another post entirely. But Google "Amazon Macmillan e-book dispute" and see how many results one has to scroll through before finding a bona fide unbiased news source.
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